Thread · 9 tweets · 1 Apr 2021

"Three futures: Exploring the future of web monetization", by @stephanierieger — yiibu.github.io/web-monetizati…. If you wonder what places the Web good go that are different from what we have in interesting (though not always necessarily good) ways, read this. A few notes: 🧵

The risks of bundled offers are very real and may happen sooner. Constant decrease in ad revenue from a dysfunctional market joined with aggregation platforms that force participation through dominance (AMP, Apple News, FB+Free Basics) are turning the Web into cable TV.

There is a growing attitude from publishers that the years of independence on the Web were just a blip and now we have to (as they put it) "know your masters." In this view, Google is just the latest Comcast and the way out is to license content through eg. Showcase and co.

The problem with seeing it that way is that cable providers don't recommend content (much) — they're pipes. A recommendation engine (search, social, watch next) is an editorial decision centre. Having just one is just like running a country with just one newspaper or TV channel.

Web Monetization provides a potential way forward, but as @stephanierieger outlines very clearly it could also strengthen that trend. This points to the need to set up structures or governance to avoid it. How? I don't know, but it's worth fixing.

Another point of interest is what she describes as the shift from "user agent" to "user advocate". This matches a lot of my thinking around the fiduciary duties of UAs, and indeed if your UA is also handling your money, then the level of required trust increases.

The problem is, however, that we now have evidence that that won't "just" happen. That UAs would have fiduciary duties has been a core assumption in Web standards for a long time, but with Chrome breaking that covenant with user tracking, it's in peril.

Here, this points to the need for a legal regime around UAs. They have largely been left out of legislation because they are largely invisible. But given their systemic importance, that's not a durable option. I think this'll require strong SDO/regulator partnership to solve.

Anyway — these were just my initial reactions that are clear enough to be shareable, there's a lot more to figure out. I'm looking forward to the ride!