Thread · 2 tweets · 8 Mar 2020

Not quite! My intuition is that big meetings bring together smaller but more stably/regularly connected groups. So the driver of transmission isn't how many people a typical attendee will meet but across how many groups they will interact.

So if the groups gathering are already highly connected otherwise (eg. they're all in the same city) I would expect the effect to be different from if they're not. But my assumption is that local cliques stay connected even with social distancing.